DEC. 31, 2003

By Kevin Little

Best Political Book of 2003:

"Minding the Public Purse" Janice MacKinnon When I left the NDP in 1998 after some in the party failed to move the party to the centre I explained that I was frustrated that so many on the left didn't take the provincial and federal debt seriously. With the exception of Saskatchewan and Manitoba I found few examples of New Democrats who spoke passionately about reducing deficits even though Tommy Dounglas had always run surpluses and been very clear why. He correctly pointed out that allowing the debt to spin out of control gave bankers control over public spending priorities.

When I left the NDP to join a party I had previously criticized as heartless I was ridiculed by my former left-wing colleagues. None took my criticism seriously. But Janice MacKinnon and Bob Rae can't be so easily dismissed. Rae has publicly walked away from the NDP and remained very critical of its fiscal immaturity. MacKinnon was Minister of Finance under the Romanow government in Saskatchewan. She details the mess she inherited from the Devine Tories and how she had to close hospitals, reduce public spending, and reduce some business taxes to generate grow and remain competitive. For these efforts she was vilified by the Labour movement and the left in the province.

She repeats the same advice that Bob Rae received from Union chief Bob White, which was to default on the government debts and declare bankruptcy. Romanow was furious with White and told him that such a course would forever doom social democrats to a marginal voice in any future election.

It remains stunning to me why it is so difficult in Canada to find a political party that is determined to rid the country of poverty and debt at the same time. My lifelong flirtation with the Liberals has often left me frustrated that poverty and debt reduction are but means to an end, power. But my time with the NDP has been no less irritating. Again and again the party ignores fiscal realities and promises spending it cannot possibly make good on.

To sum up, I think the NDP in NS finally got it right in last provincial election. I underestimated Darrell Dexter, thinking that the NDP's image had been taking such a beating across the country it would lead to loses in NS. But Dexter's everyman appeal and more importantly his fiscal restraint made him many converts. Alexa McDonough took over the party with three seats and left it that way a decade later. Hardly an achievement. Robert Chisholm made huge gains, but squandered the 1999 election because he ran a peek-a-boo campaign. Helen MacDonald was a mistake that would have led to a Liberal government. But Dexter is proving to be just what the NDP needs.

Predictions from across the country:

Newfoundland:

I called this one right. I had been predicting a PC landslide for years, the Liberals made a huge mistake in choosing Grimes over Effords. It reminded me of the Klein leadership victory in Alberta, had his opponent won that race I believe the Liberals might well be in power. But Klein breathed life into a party that was in decline, and Effords would have done the same. Danny Williams will be a colourful face on the national stage. I expect him to remain in power for many years.

Nova Scotia:

John Hamm is doing a very good job at keeping a minority government working. Danny Graham breathed new life into a very badly dispirited Liberal party and without him as leader I fear the next election may be a two-way race. If John Hamm decides to retire I predict an NDP government. If he stays it will be a very competitive election. But then again I was the one pundit who predicted a Liberal victory last summer. What do I know?

New Brunswick:

I had been saying for a very long time that Bernard Lord would be the man who would eventually lead the PC party back to respectability on the national stage. But his near defeat in NB has tarnished that image. While young and telegenic he is also robotic in his answers and hardly inspires passionate response. If he does run for the leadership of the Conservatives he'll lose to Harper who has a big advantage. I see Lord holding on to power if he stays, but should he leave for federal politics the Liberals should win the next provincial election.

Prince Edward Island:

Pat Binns puts me to sleep. Yet he continues to win elections. He reminds me a bit of Bill Davis. And if the recovery nationally dips into PEI he will be able to take credit for that and remain in power. Young Ghiz is the best the Liberals could hope for, he has energy and passion on his side. But he has a long wait in store. I see Binns as Premier for some time, he will likely outlast Paul Martin as PM.

Quebec:

I have changed my view that Bernard Lord is the saviour (pardon the pun) of the Conservative Party. Instead let me throw out this possibility. Harper is crushed by Martin and is replaced by Jean Charest. Charest, could win a national election. He would garner support in Quebec and Ontario and is well liked in the west. He is still young.

Ontario:

Dalton McGinty is still a mystery to me. An accidental Premier. He ran an excellent campaign in 2003 and remains popular. But he has promised much he cannot deliver. And if there was one thing about Harris people respected it was that he always did what he said he would do. Ontario voters don't like being misled. Still there is no leader waiting in the wings that I can see who can lift the provincial PC's to victory. Not yet anyway. And if there is one thing that surprised me since moving to Ontario it is this; the NDP are still completely discredited it here. The debacle of the early 90's has stained the NDP's chances for years to come.

Manitoba:

Gary Doer is doing a grand job. Balancing the books, investing in health care, attacking poverty. His success make him a very attractive national figure and for that very reason the national party would never elect him leader. (Again, read MacKinnon's book.) Interesting to me that a left-wing, gay and charismatic Winnipeg mayor, Glen Murray, who should be running for the NDP in the 2004 federal election, is instead running for the Liberals under Paul Martin. What does that say about the federal NDP?

Saskatchewan:

I think everyone I know was surprised and delighted that United Church minister Lorne Calvert won re-election. Apparently it wasn't pretty, the NDP ran a very negative campaign against the right-wing Saskatchewan Party. Now that the former Reform MP has stepped down as leader I expect Calvert will have a much harder time in the next election. Is Calvertas committed to fiscal disciple as Douglas, Blakeney and Romanow? I hope so. Time will tell.

Alberta:

A few years ago Ralph Klein got drunk, dissed homeless people and threw money at them. ANY other political leader would have been finished. Not Klein. He too could stay a long time as Premier. Unlike Binns who makes wet paint look interesting, Klein is wild and unpredictable. But this seems to endear him to his voters. Go figure.

British Columbia:

This is a huge question mark. Like McGinty Campbell is unsteady and is vulnerable. But also like him he has a weak opposition, all of whom have been discredited. So if voters decide they can't forgive Campbell for his drinking and driving and his right-wing policies who would they vote for? Personally I had great hope for the Greens, they did well in the last election and they have a platform which emphasizes fiscal discipline. Adrienne Carr seemed credible and had media savvy. But I never hear about her or her party anymore so I am assuming she is no longer a player.

National Politics:

Can you say landslide? Martin has been given a gift, a weak and discredited right-wing that is headed for total meltdown. I predict Martin will win huge in the atlantic provinces (where tories will vote en masse for the Liberals), he'll win almost every seat in Ontario and Quebec, and he'll do very well in Manitoba. In Saskatchewan and BC I see NDP gains for Layton and only in Alberta do I see Conservative Party strength.

Just a word on the Brison defection. I have met and followed Scott for a number of years. I like him, he is a man of ideas. And I am sick and tired of PC's painting him as an opportunist. I remember Peter MacKay snuggling up to the right-wing on the committee that examined same-sex marriages. There is no way that I believe MacKay feels strongly on this, it was clearly meant to create a wedge issue between he and Brison on the leadership front. Then MacKay, not Brison, promised delegates he would not merge with the Alliance. Then MacKay, not Brison, promised Orchard he would not enter into talks to unite the right. Who is the opportunist?

Brison has had to sit in a PC caucus with Elsie Wayne who continues to trash gays. The thought of joining a larger caucus filled with red necks and homophobes could not have been thrilling. MacKay has done little to inspire libertarians like Brison that he would fight to keep the party moderate. So why wouldn't Brison leave? Like me he has blasted the Liberals. So did Trudeau before he joined the party. The fact is the Liberal Party remains the only place someone like Brison, or me for that matter, can play a part in national politics.

Until the national NDP figure out that national debt is not an invention of the Fraser or CD Howe institute, and until the Conservative Party figures out that Canadians are not anti-gay or anti-immigration or anti-government intervention, the opportunistic Liberals, warts and all, will be our only choice. But then there is always the Green Party...