Opinion
If I Was A Liberal Strategist
By David Tudor
Apr 26, 2005, 07:50

The Liberals are being rocked by an ever growing scandal. The public does not want an election. The liberals have a minority government that can be toppled at any moment. I'm asking myself what would I do if I was a Liberal?

The Liberals have several more months of punishing revelations about their penchant for scandal to look forward to. With the rumours that Chuck Guite is preparing to change his story running rampant in the media. Can the Liberals expect things to get better by waiting to call an election?

According to polls the Canadian public do not want another election. The Liberals have very few bandwagons left for them to hop on. Martin has been crossing the country and appearing on national television pushing that the idea that now is not the time for an election.

The Liberals are at 30% in the polls, a number that will most likely be steady until more damage and scandal comes their way via Gomery. The Liberals are starting to implode in an orgy of back-stabbing and blame. Martin needs to stop the in-fighting and what better way to do it than having an election. Nothing gets the troops lined up and behaving themselves like having the enemy at the gates.

Realistically the Liberals have no way of avoiding an election. The best that they can do is try to frame the fall of the government in as positive way as possible for the Liberals. And the best way for the Liberals to fall is on a budget vote. This way Paul Martin's heartfelt address to the nation on how we have to make government work is on everyone's mind. The optics of Harper voting against a budget that he previously supported. I can hear the soon to be Liberal talking points now - "Harper working with the separatists to bring down the government just so he can have a few more seats" and "Harper risking the future of the country just for the promise of power", and so on.

The only problem with this plan is the NDP and its offer (remember the liberals never asked for any help) to prop up the government's budget vote in return for a halt to more corporate tax cuts. Suddenly the Liberals have a chance to hang on a little bit longer but they also lose the political capital they gain by losing on a goodie filled budget.

The longer Martin hangs on while being attacked from all sides the less bothered Canadians will be by an election. Martin has nothing to look forward to other than a dysfunctional House of Commons, more Liberal infighting, an endless stream of scandal from Gomery, and an increasingly angry voting public.

Expect the Liberals to take a "principled stand against the NDP" because the best chance for them is to have an election now. And if they do it right they may be able to pull off another minority.

© Copyright 2004 by HalifaxLive.com