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Most Americans, and those of us who like to watch presidential elections from afar, are zeroed in on the battle for the Democratic nomination. The race between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards, is now heading towards February 4th, and the so-called showdown on Super Tuesday. It is generally thought that the victor on that day should carry the convention and head the ticket for the November vote, the one that counts. Except if you’re Al Gore and have a million or so votes more that George W. Bush. Oops, sorry, the devil made me do it!
Speaking of Satan, those who fear him the most, born-again Christians, just might be holding the outcome in the palms of their prayer-folded hands. Frankly, as an outsider looking in, I could be perfectly comfortable with Clinton or Obama in the White House. Heck, even long-shot John Edwards would be more a palatable choice than any of the Republicans currently chasing the brass ring.
On the subject of Edwards, I have a personal theory, one not based on anything I’ve either heard or read. If he remains in the race, is it because deep down he doesn’t believe that his party can win with a woman or a person of colour? Does he believe that this could allow him to come up the middle and grab the nomination at the 11th hour?
What transpired on Saturday, Obama trouncing Clinton, may just trigger the backlash I hope isn’t there. In South Carolina, one of the most loyal Republican states in the nation, the Democrats polled 293,000 votes four years ago. Obama alone polled more than that on Saturday. If pockets of fear exist at the possibility of having an Afro-American as the Commander-in-Chief, will the South Carolina results be enough to ignite a Republican revival?
Meanwhile, back at the ranch (the one in Crawford, Texas), you can be sure the Republicans are plotting to thwart any attempt, no matter who leads it, to unseat them. Enter the Christian Right.
George W. Bush, like his father before him, and Ronald Reagan before GHWB, all pointed to the solid support they received, not only from the Christian Right, but also from many Catholics. It all goes back to 1976 and Jimmy Carter. That’s right, it was the Democrats who awakened the followers of Jesus Christ.
Carter, a born-again Christian and a lay preacher, mobilized the Southern Baptists, who in turn reached out to other Protestant denominations. The ensuing result was a massive block of voters who believed that in Carter, they had the individual who would, using the Bible, lead them in a Godly way.
However, Carter, who had been backed by half of all evangelical voters, had a surprise for the religious zealots. He was a genuine Democrat, and was not about to govern with one hand on the Bible. The anti-abortionists, anti-gays, prayer in school groups, etc, were thunderstruck that Carter, a good and decent man, wasn’t the right-wing loony they coveted.
The result was that within a year of Carter’s election, the evangelical voters left the Democrats and found a more comfortable pew in the Republican camp. Spurred by countless religious programs on radio, television and Cable TV, and mushrooming numbers of conservative political groups, these God-fearing Americans were politicized. And for over 30 years they have continued to hold the balance of power in their sweaty palms.
The question now is, do they have the numbers needed to stop the Democrats? Those who think our friends south of the 49th, are only anxious to rid themselves of Bush and the Republicans are not looking outside the so-called box. They may not like the war in Iraq, but when push comes to shove, I’m betting their right wing agenda will win the day.
(Al Hollingsworth is a retired journalist)
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