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“Mommy, it’s over!” |
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Written by Al Hollingsworth
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Saturday, 07 June 2008 |
When whatever that thing is on “Just For Laughs” (the program that seems to run ad nauseum on CBCTV and the Comedy Channel) appears on the screen and laments, “Mommy, it’s over,” it signals the end of the show. The little bit of silliness that distracts from some brilliant comedy performances, came to mind on Thursday morning when I read the Halifax Chronicle-Herald story, “Premier, party take hit in poll.”
It was a breakdown of a poll conducted by Corporate Research Associates from May 7 to June 1, whereby 1,203 Nova Scotia residents shared their thoughts with the pollsters about the state of provincial politics. The result, if you are a Tory, is downright scary. Why? Because, “Mommy, it’s over.”
Normally, I subscribe to Yogi Berra’s theory, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” But this is different. You can sense the desire for change, and I’m not talking the old “Toss out the Tories and elect the Grits,” or vise versa. No, it’s bigger than that. The world, at least this tiny corner of the universe, has changed, which explains why the governing Progressive Conservatives are in third place .
Forget the PCs and the Grits, there is a third party, a third choice. The NDP Party, headed by Darrell Dexter, will form the next government in Nova Scotia. Their time has come and at this point, I don’t see any stopping them.
Nothing against Stephen McNeil, who is slowly climbing in the polls, and sits behind Darrell in second place. I do not know him personally but I do know a number of his brothers, and he comes from a fine family. I knew and worked with his late father at the Nova Scotia Light and Power.
After his Dad’s premature passing, Stephen’s mother was left to raise 17 children, and she did a remarkable job. But this isn’t about family, this is about politics, a true blood sport.
Timing in politics is everything. Frankly, it’s not Stephen McNeil’s time. He may, if the party doesn’t eat him after his first attempt, still form a government. It just won’t be in 2009.
The numbers are not there for him. The fact is that he and Rodney MacDonald will be tilling the same soil - rural Nova Scotia along with the seats in Cape Breton. The NDP holds a couple of seats on the Island and, I am told, could add the Glace Bay seat to their caucus. Bad news for the Liberals. Another bit of doom and gloom for the Grits has Cape Breton South going to the Tories.
Metro, or HRM to be exact, belongs to Dexter and company, and I doubt if they will lose a seat. Might even pick up one or two (read Eastern Shore and Clayton Park). It’s called the bandwagon effect.
There is a new stream of young voters who will be going to the polls for the first time. These young idealistic types tend to gravitate to the New Democrats. And in the last couple of elections, so have the seniors, who have left their Tory and Grit roots, attracted to NDP policies that address their needs.
Not a pretty picture if you are a Tory strategist. Frankly, from where I sit, they appear to be boxed in with no way out. Add to that the rumor that two or three of the current cabinet members do not plan to reoffer, and they might start looking, not ahead, but over their shoulders, to see if the Green Party is closing in on them.
Mommy, it’s over!
(Al Hollingsworth is a retired journalist and former Grit who worked for the Liberal Party and was a provincial riding association president) |
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