Spurred on by our readers’ fury at the lack of  decent five day forecasts, Halifax Live is launching a four day battle royal between Canada’s  two main weather predicting services. Both have proven to be exceptionally inept this year, and we are therefore determined to find out which one of the two is actually the least competent.

In the blue corner we have the Weather Network, owned by Pelmorex which in turn is partially owned by Landmark Communication, and American company that happens to own the American Weather Channel . With its staff of hundreds, it will represent the private, multinational sector.

In the red, or pinko, corner is our venerable Canadian weather service run by Environment Canada and  manned by Bob,  its laid-back, septuagenarian meteorologist who also doubles as the tea lady.  Together they will be defend the honour of publicly owned, socialised weather services everywhere.

Finally, we have Mia, an exceptional young lady , who at the tender age of four has become one of this country’s most gifted climate prognosticators. Most famously, she predicted that “ in the summer the sky is sunny and blue “, a remarkable feat given that she lives in Nova Scotia where such occurrences are as rare as politicians with visions that do not include more call centres.

The contest works as follows: on Sunday July the 22^nd at 10 a.m. , the weather predictions for Halifax, covering the next four days , were obtained from each services’ web-site (In Mia’s case it was obtained orally). Starting on Tuesday, each prediction (or divination to be more accurate) will be measured using the previous day’s actual weather data. One point will be awarded for the service that came closest to predicting the correct high. Another point will be heaped upon whoever guessed the low most accurately. A final point will be awarded to whichever service came closest to predicting the actual weather, or fog as we call it here in Nova Scotia. At the end of the week, points will be tallied and a winner announced.

Round 1 Results:

It was a lovely day in North End Halifax.  Birds were shining , a few clouds were chirping and anyone who shot anyone had to make sure that, when aiming, the sun was not going to be in their eyes. The daily high was 23.8 and the low 14.3.

Here is a breakdown of the points:

The Weather Network: their horde of meteorologist  were spot on, delivering an almost flawless forecast.  Their clear victory, however, leaves one with the suspicion that, just like at the Tour de France, a bit of blood doping might account for the early lead.  The Network received .5 points for the nearly correct high, 1 point for being closest to the correct low and another point for nailing the overall prediction.
Environment Canada: The battle has begun and our dear Weathermen have already received their first wedgy . Although scoring .5 of a point by almost getting the correct maximum temperature, they failed to offer any thoughts on the minimum one. Their periods of drizzle also failed to materialize.
Mia: spot on. Bonus points for only leaving fifteen , instead of the usual forty-two stuffed animals lying around my study .  

Round 2 Results

As the fog broke to reveal more of the same, the picture , at first, looked glum for both parties. By the afternoon , however, all was well.  While a few clouds flittered to and fro, the sun managed to take centre stage for most of the day. In the end, the weather turned into a humid , almost tropical affair.

Weather Network: A half point for a more or less spot on prediction re: the actual weather. One point for predicting the (almost) correct low.
Environment Canada: A much better show from our Civil Servants. A half point for the weather description and another point for coming closest to the maximum temperature.
Mia: “ hot and cloudy” was actually a very succinct and accurate way of putting it.   

Round 3 Results

If mumps kept you quarantined at home yesterday , you were likely gnashing your teeth as you saw the rest of us frolicking about in the glaring sunshine. A few clouds popped by, but even if they had decided to form a gang and attack en masse, their numbers were too low to have made any impression.  To the results.

Weather Network: What exactly constitutes a “cloudy period” is a bit subjective. Here at HL  we have decided that both parties were somewhat correct in their predictions regarding yesterday’s weather. Yes there were clouds, but they were simply too insignificant in strength and numbers to disturb what was a truly lovely, sunny day. The weather network will therefore share the spoils with their fierce  socialist rivals . Both parties will also share the points for (almost) predicting the correct low (16.0°C). The total for the Weather Network thus came to one point.
Environment Canada:  Once again, our tax payer financed weather frogs beat out their more glamorous private sector rivals. On top of the aforementioned  share of the spoils, they also came closest to the actual high (28.5°C vs. the predicted 28°C). Their total score for the day was two points.
Mia: Too  busy focusing on her future as a princess and/or ballerina, Mia could not concentrate on all things meteorological, which would account for her “snow and cold” lapse.

Round 4 Results

Once again the sun shone in its full maritime glory , and once again a few forlorn clouds strayed into the picture only to exit stage left at the earliest opportunity. Whether these few specimens justified the Weather Network’s “ Cloudy periods” prediction remains a point of contention. After all, it could be seen as a cop out , especially in light of Environment Canada’s brave , uncompromising , and very cheerful call for a “sunny” day, which it essentially turned out to be. Since no one here at HL is qualified to examine this meteorological conundrum with academic precision, we once again copped out and awarded each party half a point. Here are the rest of the results:

Weather Network: The private weather sleuths managed to get the actual low spot-on (18°C) and receive one point for their efforts.
Environment Canada: as mentioned, our brave, taxpayer funded weather augurs threw caution to the wind and – for the second day running-  predicted a high of 28°C . They undershot it by 3.9  degrees but still collected the point for their valiant effort.
Mia: Yes it was hot and, as mentioned, a few clouds could be spotted. Such natural talent can be quite frightening to a parent.

Final Tally : Weather Network 6.5 points; Environment Canada 5.5 points

Conclusion

When we at HL glibly started this little contest, we naturally assumed that both sides would utterly fail. Credit has, therefore, to be given to all the combatants for getting the forecasts more or less right. We doubt, however, that this little exercise will silence the critics , although the present heat might at least mute them for a while.

Finally, we would like to congratulate all the meteorological privateers in charge of the Halifax forecast at the Weather Network for their narrow victory over their socialist cousins. You did well, but that won’t stop us from cursing you the next time you get it all wrong.